The retail revolution isn’t being defined by who can sell the most products—it’s being decided by who can build the smartest ecosystems around value and efficiency. As global consumers shift from mindless spending to conscious consumption, two distinct strategies have emerged as the dominant drivers of the next retail era: the circular economy that reclaims value from the old, and the AI-integrated platform that redefines the new.
This is where the retail conversation shifts from simple transactions to massive infrastructure—and where the most resilient, high-growth winners are surfacing.
👉 One company is building the physical and digital "nervous system" for the circular economy, turning the global waste problem into a standardized, profitable supply chain.
👉 The other is a global titan that has successfully pivoted its massive commerce engine into an AI and Cloud powerhouse, becoming the essential backbone for the digital future.
👉 Both are generating record-level momentum, command dominant market positions, and are currently trading at valuations that the market has yet to fully realize.
In this edition, we break down the recycling pioneer and the technology giant that are anchoring the specialty retail sector—and why these two stocks are the foundational plays for a smarter, more sustainable global economy.
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ATRenew (NYSE: RERE)
ATRenew (NYSE: RERE) is a leading technology-driven platform in China’s circular economy, specializing in the transaction and services of pre-owned consumer electronics. By integrating online and offline channels, ATRenew has built a comprehensive ecosystem that gives a "second life" to idle goods—primarily smartphones, laptops, and tablets—while expanding into multi-category recycling including luxury goods and household items.
Business Model and Revenue Streams 📦
ATRenew operates a sophisticated "scenario + supply chain" model that connects individual consumers, small merchants, and large retailers. Its business is built on a closed-loop system of C2B (Consumer-to-Business), B2B (Business-to-Business), and B2C (Business-to-Consumer) capabilities. The company generates revenue through two primary segments:
- Net Product Sales: This is the core revenue driver, where ATRenew purchases pre-owned electronics through its AHS Recycle (offline stores and online) and JD.com partnerships, refurbishes them, and resells them. This segment benefits from the company’s proprietary "Matrix" AI inspection and grading technology, which standardizes the value of used goods.
- Net Service Revenues: These are high-margin revenues derived from its marketplaces, PJT Marketplace (B2B) and Paipai Marketplace (B2C). ATRenew charges commission fees and provides value-added services such as standardized grading, logistics, and quality assurance to third-party merchants trading on its platforms.
The company is highly influenced by macroeconomic policies in China, particularly those promoting "Circular Economy" and ESG initiatives. Recent government incentives encouraging "trade-in" programs for consumer electronics act as a direct tailwind. However, ATRenew is also sensitive to consumer spending power; during economic slowdowns, while "new" phone sales might lag, the demand for affordable, high-quality "pre-owned" devices often increases, making the business somewhat counter-cyclical.
Recent Performance and Corporate Developments 📈
ATRenew has shown exceptional momentum throughout 2025, culminating in record-breaking financial results and strategic recognition.
Q3 2025 Financial Highlights: 💰
- Total Revenue: Reached a record RMB 5.15 billion ($723.3 million), a 27.1% increase year-over-year.
- Net Income: Surged by a massive 407.3% to RMB 90.8 million ($12.8 million), showcasing significant operational leverage.
- Growth Segments: Revenue from "compliant refurbished products" was a standout, growing 102% year-over-year, as consumers increasingly trust the company’s certified-used devices.
Strategic Initiatives and News: 🤝
- Share Repurchase: In June 2025, the board authorized a new $50 million share repurchase program, signaling management's confidence in the stock's intrinsic value.
- Earthshot Prize: In October 2025, ATRenew was named a finalist for the prestigious Earthshot Prize in the "Waste-Free World" category, highlighting its global leadership in ESG.
- Store Expansion: The AHS store network reached 2,195 locations by the end of Q3 2025, deepening its physical moat in Chinese shopping malls.
Profitability and Fair Value 🎯
ATRenew has officially hit its "profitability inflection point." After years of heavy investment in its automated inspection centers and offline footprint, the company is now reaping the rewards of scale.
- Profitability Path: The shift toward high-margin service fees and the rapid growth of the B2C Paipai Selection (refurbished) business are driving margin expansion. Non-GAAP operating profit increased 34.9% in the most recent quarter.
- Fair Value: Trading at an Enterprise Value-to-Revenue (EV/Rev) ratio of approximately 0.4x, the stock is considered significantly undervalued by many fundamental analysts. A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests a fair value closer to $6.86 per share, implying that the current market price (trading around $5.60–$5.70) does not yet fully reflect its 50%+ projected earnings growth.
Analyst Estimates and Ratings 📊
- Consensus Rating: The stock maintains a "Strong Buy" or "Buy" consensus from the majority of analysts covering the sector.
- Price Targets: Following the strong Q3 results, analysts have aggressively hiked their targets. While the average target sits around $6.95, recent individual revisions (such as those from Fintel/Nasdaq contributors) have seen targets move as high as $8.16, representing a potential upside of over 40% from current levels.
Investor-Focused Takeaway: Is RERE Right for Your Portfolio?
ATRenew offers a unique "double-play" on both the growing Chinese consumer market and the global sustainability trend. Unlike traditional retailers, it benefits from the transition toward a circular economy where "waste" is transformed into standardized inventory.
What to Watch in the Near Term: 📈
- Q4 Revenue Guidance: The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to reach between RMB 6.08 billion and 6.18 billion, a 25–27% increase. Meeting this will be a key catalyst.
- AI Integration: Continued efficiency gains from the "Matrix 3.0" automated grading system, which reduces labor costs and increases accuracy.
- Refurbishment Scale: The ability to maintain triple-digit growth in its "Certified Refurbished" brand will be the primary driver of future margin expansion.
Recommendation:
ATRenew (RERE) is a top-tier pick for investors seeking exposure to the specialty retail and ESG sectors. With a dominant market share in China, a profitable business model, and a massive gap between its current price and its fair value, it represents a compelling growth opportunity.
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Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA)
Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) is a global technology conglomerate that has evolved from a domestic e-commerce pioneer into a comprehensive digital ecosystem. As of early 2026, Alibaba has completed a major strategic pivot, repositioning itself as an AI-driven technology platform that integrates global commerce, cloud infrastructure, and advanced logistics.
Business Model and Revenue Streams 📦
Alibaba’s business model is built on a "platform-first" approach, where it facilitates transactions and provides infrastructure rather than holding extensive inventory. Its revenue is generated through four primary pillars:
- Taobao and Tmall Group (China Commerce): This remains the core engine, contributing approximately 45% of total revenue. It earns through merchant services, including high-intent advertising (P4P) and commissions on Tmall transactions.
- Cloud Intelligence Group: Now the company's most critical growth driver (12% of revenue), providing IaaS, PaaS, and proprietary AI models like "Qwen." This segment is benefiting from the massive surge in AI adoption across China.
- International Digital Commerce (AIDC): Comprising AliExpress, Lazada, and Trendyol, this segment is the fastest-growing at over 30% YoY, capturing the rise of cross-border shopping in Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
- Cainiao Smart Logistics: This segment monetizes the physical movement of goods through fulfillment and international shipping fees, increasingly serving third-party merchants outside the Alibaba ecosystem.
Macroeconomic Impact: Alibaba is highly sensitive to China’s domestic consumption policies. Throughout 2025, government stimulus measures, including consumer "trade-in" subsidies, provided a direct boost to its e-commerce volumes. However, the company still navigates headwinds from a cautious real estate market and geopolitical export restrictions on high-end AI semiconductors, which has forced Alibaba to accelerate its own proprietary chip development.
Recent Performance and Corporate Developments 📈
In late 2025 and entering 2026, Alibaba has focused on "coherence"—aligning its various business units under a unified AI-first strategy.
Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Highlights: 💰
- Total Revenue: Reported at RMB 247.8 billion ($34.8 billion), a 15% increase year-over-year, beating most analyst expectations.
- Cloud & AI Momentum: Cloud revenue surged by 34% YoY, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters.
- Net Income: GAAP net income saw a decline to RMB 20.6 billion, largely due to a deliberate 80% increase in capital expenditure (CapEx) focused on building out AI server infrastructure and aggressive marketing for its "Quick Commerce" services.
Strategic Initiatives and Mergers: 🤝
- AI Investments: In December 2025, news broke that Alibaba would be a lead investor in the Hong Kong IPO of MiniMax, a prominent AI startup. This follows a trend of Alibaba taking stakes in "China’s AI Tigers" to bolster its ecosystem.
- Asset Divestiture: The company recently completed the disposal of non-core physical retail assets like Sun Art and Intime, allowing it to return to a more "asset-light" technology model.
Profitability and Fair Value 🎯
Alibaba remains a massive cash cow, despite its heavy reinvestment cycle into AI. The company currently holds over $41 billion in net cash, providing a significant cushion for its ongoing $50 billion share repurchase program.
- Profitability Analysis: While GAAP profits have fluctuated due to investments, the "Customer Management Revenue" (CMR) from its core e-commerce business grew 10% in the last quarter, proving that its most profitable segment has stabilized against competitors like Pinduoduo.
- Fair Value: Analysts and valuation firms like Morningstar currently view Alibaba as significantly undervalued. With a fair value estimate of $258.00—nearly 40% above its current trading range in the $145–$150 area—the stock is priced as a mature retailer rather than the high-growth AI and Cloud powerhouse it is becoming.
Analyst Estimates and Ratings 📊
- Consensus Rating: The stock holds a "Buy" consensus rating. Out of 56 analysts, 54 maintain "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings, with zero "Sell" recommendations as of January 2026.
- Price Targets: The median 12-month price target is $196.64. More optimistic targets from firms like Jefferies and Citigroup have recently been raised to the $225.00–$230.00 range following the re-acceleration of the Cloud segment.
Investor-Focused Takeaway: Is BABA Right for Your Portfolio?
Alibaba has transitioned from a company under regulatory fire to a streamlined technology leader. It offers investors a rare combination of a "value stock" valuation (low P/E) with "growth stock" catalysts in AI and International Commerce.
What to Watch in the Near Term: 📈
- Cloud Margin Expansion: Watch for the Cloud segment to turn from a revenue grower into a major profit contributor as AI infrastructure begins to scale.
- Share Buybacks: The pace of share repurchases will be a key indicator of management’s view on the stock’s undervaluation.
- Ant Group Developments: Any news regarding a potential IPO or restructuring of its fintech affiliate, Ant Group, remains a major "hidden" catalyst.
Recommendation:
Alibaba (BABA) is a core holding for those looking to play the recovery of the Chinese consumer and the global AI infrastructure race. Its current valuation offers a significant margin of safety, while its dominant position in the Cloud ensures it remains the "backbone" of the digital economy in Asia.
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Final Take: The Circular Engine and the AI Backbone of Modern Retail
The next era of retail isn't just about moving boxes—it’s about optimizing every stage of a product's lifecycle. This requires two things: a circular supply chain that extracts value from what already exists and a massive digital infrastructure that scales commerce through intelligence.
That’s where ATRenew (RERE) and Alibaba (BABA) stand apart.
♻️ ATRenew (RERE) — The "Nervous System" of the Circular Economy
- ✔ Dominant Moat: 2,100+ physical stores and AI-driven automated inspection centers that competitors cannot easily replicate.
- ✔ Profitability Inflection: Achieving record net income and triple-digit growth in high-margin refurbished segments.
- ✔ ESG Leadership: A global finalist for the Earthshot Prize, perfectly aligned with government-backed "trade-in" policies.
- ➤ Best for: Investors seeking a high-growth, small-cap leader in sustainability with a massive valuation gap to close.
☁️ Alibaba (BABA) — The AI-Driven Operating System for Global Trade
- ✔ AI Growth Engine: Cloud revenue and proprietary AI models (Qwen) are now the primary drivers of future value.
- ✔ Cash Powerhouse: Over $40B in net cash supporting one of the most aggressive share buyback programs in the tech sector.
- ✔ Global Scale: International commerce is growing at 30%+ YoY, transforming the company into a truly global infrastructure play.
- ➤ Best for: Value-oriented investors looking for "Big Tech" stability paired with explosive upside in AI and international e-commerce.
Investor Insight
🧩 Want to play the "Second Life" of consumer electronics and the ESG revolution? → RERE
⚙️ Want foundational exposure to China’s AI recovery and global digital logistics? → BABA
Bottom Line:
Retail doesn't scale on traditional storefronts anymore—it scales on resource efficiency and cloud intelligence.
ATRenew owns the physical supply chain of the circular economy, while Alibaba provides the digital brains that power global consumption. As the world moves toward smarter, more sustainable spending, RERE and BABA aren’t just retailers—they are the essential infrastructure of the new economy.
Happy Trading
— Team Premium Stock Alerts