Issue #26

⛏️ Top 2 Mining Stocks for 2025: Gold Strength Meets Copper Growth

As gold prices hover near record highs and copper demand surges on the back of global electrification, two miners are standing out for their execution, balance sheet strength, and growth potential.

Barrick Mining (NYSE:B) remains the gold standard among global producers. With a portfolio of Tier One mines and a laser focus on high-margin output, Barrick just posted its strongest quarterly earnings in more than a decade—boosted by $3,295/oz gold and record cash flow. Strategic divestitures and massive projects like Reko Diq and Fourmile keep it firmly positioned as the premier name for long-term gold and copper exposure.

Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO), meanwhile, is fast emerging as one of the most promising growth stories in the mid-tier mining space. Its flagship Skouries copper-gold project in Greece is 70% complete and set to redefine the company’s profile in 2026, while strong Q2 results highlight its ability to translate soaring gold prices into robust earnings.

Together, Barrick and Eldorado are shaping the new face of mining—anchored in profitability, disciplined expansion, and leverage to the twin tailwinds of gold’s safe-haven demand and copper’s green transition story.

Barrick Mining (NYSE:B)

Barrick Mining (NYSE: B) is one of the world’s leading gold and copper producers, operating a portfolio of what it terms “Tier One” assets—large, long-life, low-cost mines—across five continents. The company has recently streamlined its business to focus purely on these world-class assets and high-potential growth projects, positioning it as a core investment for gaining exposure to the precious metals and base metals markets.

Business Model and Revenue Streams 📦

Barrick’s business model is straightforward: create value by finding, developing, and operating the highest-quality gold and copper mines on the planet. Its strategy centers on long-term resource management and disciplined capital allocation. Rather than chasing volume, the focus is on high-margin, sustainable production.

Core Revenue Streams:

1. Gold Sales: This is Barrick’s primary revenue stream, generated from its vast network of gold mines, including the industry-leading Nevada Gold Mines joint venture.
2. Copper Sales: A significant secondary revenue stream, primarily from its African operations like Lumwana, which is undergoing a major expansion.

Macroeconomic Impact:

Barrick’s financial performance is almost entirely leveraged to two major macroeconomic factors: commodity prices and global risk.

• Gold Price: Gold is a classic safe-haven asset. Persistent global inflation (running above central bank targets), ongoing geopolitical tensions, and sustained central bank buying programs in 2025 have driven the gold price to record highs. As a high-grade, low-cost producer, Barrick benefits significantly from every dollar increase in the spot price, amplifying its profitability.
• Interest Rate Policy: Fluctuations in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, specifically interest rate decisions, directly affect the dollar's strength and the opportunity cost of holding gold (which yields no interest). However, a recent shift towards interest rate cuts, following a moderation of inflation, has generally supported higher gold prices.
• Cost Management: To counteract global input price inflation, Barrick has executed an aggressive supply chain strategy, managing to revert key consumable input costs to 2021 levels, bolstering its All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) advantage over peers.

Recent Performance and Corporate Developments 📈

Barrick has demonstrated remarkable operational resilience and financial strength in 2025, supported significantly by the robust price environment for gold.

Q2 2025 Financial Highlights: 💰

• Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): Reported an adjusted EPS of $0.47, the highest recorded for the company since 2013, significantly exceeding analyst consensus.
• Revenue: Total revenue was a solid $3.68 billion, showing strong upward momentum driven by realized gold prices averaging $3,295 per ounce for the quarter.
• Cash Flow: Operating cash flow surged by 35% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the high-margin nature of its production in the current price environment.
• Shareholder Returns: The company continues its aggressive capital return policy, declaring an enhanced Q2 dividend of $0.15 per share, which included a performance top-up.

Strategic Initiatives and Mergers/Divestitures: 🤝

Barrick's recent corporate activity is defined by a rigorous focus on portfolio quality and capital discipline:

• Divestitures: In the latter half of 2025, Barrick has announced the sale of non-core assets, including its interest in the Tongon mine (for up to $305 million) and the Hemlo mine (for up to $1.09 billion). These sales, along with the divestiture of its stake in the Donlin project, align with its strategy to streamline operations and invest capital back into Tier One assets.
• Growth Projects: Development is accelerating on key projects like the Reko Diq copper-gold project and the highly-promising Fourmile gold discovery in Nevada, which is moving into the prefeasibility stage after confirming its status as one of the century's most significant finds.
• Operational Headwinds: The company continues to navigate geopolitical challenges, including the temporary suspension of operations at its Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali, though the impact on overall profitability has been offset by the historically high gold price.

Path to Profitability and Fair Value 🎯

Barrick is already one of the most profitable miners in the industry, and its path to increasing that profitability is clear: disciplined, organic growth, coupled with a focus on its high-grade reserve base.

Path to Sustained Growth:

1. Project Development: Bringing key projects like Lumwana (copper expansion) and Reko Diq online is expected to increase both gold and copper attributable production, driving revenue growth through 2030.
2. Cost Discipline: Maintaining one of the lowest AISC in the industry ensures maximum capture of gold and copper price upside.
3. Tier One Focus: The strategic divestiture of smaller, non-core assets increases the overall quality and resilience of the portfolio against production volatility.

Valuation Assessment:

The company’s strong financial health (robust balance sheet, low net debt, and high free cash flow generation) suggests that its stock is currently trading at a reasonable valuation, especially when accounting for its long-life reserve base. Some recent analyses indicate the stock is trading at a slight discount to its estimated fair value, making it an attractive entry point.

Analyst Estimates and Ratings 📊

Analyst sentiment remains highly supportive, driven by the strong Q2 earnings, the high gold price environment, and the clear strategic roadmap.

• Consensus Rating: The overall consensus rating for Barrick Mining is a Buy or Moderate Buy. Recent ratings have heavily favored the Buy side (approximately 60% of recent ratings are Buy/Strong Buy).
• Price Target: The average 12-month price target is approximately $36.79 (USD), reflecting a recent increase following the Q2 earnings release and a positive outlook on the Fourmile project development.

Investor-Focused Takeaway: Is B Right for Your Portfolio?

Barrick Mining (B) provides investors with superior leverage to the gold and copper markets. Its strategic focus on high-quality, low-cost assets is mitigating jurisdictional risks and cost inflation. While the stock's performance will always be tied to commodity prices, its recent financial results and portfolio clean-up demonstrate a fundamentally sound, well-managed company poised to benefit from persistent global uncertainty and high metal prices. It is viewed as a foundational holding for investors seeking exposure to the precious metals sector.

Eldorado Gold (NYSE:EGO)

Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO) is a Canadian-based mid-tier gold and base metals producer with over 30 years of experience, focused on building and operating a diversified portfolio of mines across Europe and the Americas. The company has four producing mines—Lamaque (Canada), Kışladağ (Turkey), Efemçukuru (Turkey), and Olympias (Greece)—and is aggressively advancing its flagship growth project, Skouries, into production.

Business Model and Revenue Streams 📦

Eldorado Gold’s business model revolves around maximizing value from a geographically diverse set of high-quality assets. The primary objective is to increase production of gold, while strategically utilizing the significant copper and silver resources embedded within its portfolio, particularly in Greece.

Core Revenue Streams:

1. Gold Sales: The dominant source of revenue, primarily driven by production from its four operating mines.
2. Copper & Silver Sales: This contribution is set to increase dramatically with the commissioning of the Skouries project, which is a major copper-gold asset. This diversification reduces reliance solely on gold and exposes the company to favorable base metal market trends.

Macroeconomic Impact: Like all gold miners, Eldorado’s profitability is directly linked to commodity prices and global economic sentiment.

• Gold Price Leverage: The recent surge in gold prices, driven by persistent inflation and geopolitical instability, directly boosts Eldorado's revenue. With an All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) of per ounce (Q2 2025), the significant margin between its cost base and the realized price (around $3,270 per ounce in Q2 2025) translates directly into strong cash flow generation.
• Cost Headwinds: A major challenge is the rising cost of production. Q2 2025 saw increased AISC primarily due to higher royalties (a function of the high gold price) and elevated labor costs. The price of oil also remains a critical factor, as energy and transportation costs are significant inputs for mining operations.
• Geopolitical Risk: Operating in countries like Turkey and Greece introduces unique, though often manageable, jurisdictional risks, which the company mitigates through strong local partnerships and a focus on corporate social responsibility.

Recent Performance and Corporate Developments 📈

Eldorado Gold reported exceptionally strong Q2 2025 results, demonstrating its ability to translate the high gold price environment into substantial financial gains while achieving major milestones on its growth path.

Q2 2025 Financial Highlights: 💰

• Revenue: Surged by 52% year-over-year to $452 million, driven by a realized gold price of $3,270 per ounce.
• Adjusted Net Earnings: Reported $90 million, or $0.44 per share, significantly exceeding consensus expectations.
• Production: Gold production was robust at 133,769 ounces, keeping the company on track to meet the midpoint of its full-year guidance (460,000 to 500,000 ounces).
• Underlying Cash Flow: The company delivered strong operating cash flow. While reported Free Cash Flow was negative ($62 million) due to heavy investment in the Skouries project, the underlying operations generated $61.5 million in positive free cash flow.

Strategic Initiatives and Mergers: 🤝

• Skouries Advancement: This remains the company's single most important growth driver. The copper-gold project in Greece is 70% complete and on schedule for first production in Q1 2026. This project is expected to significantly boost overall production and diversify revenue streams.
• QMX Acquisition: Eldorado completed the friendly acquisition of QMX Gold Corporation, a strategic move that expands its land position in the highly prospective Val-d'Or region of Quebec, consolidating a major Canadian exploration package around its flagship Lamaque mine.
• Leadership Change: In September 2025, the company announced the appointment of Christian Milau as President, signaling a focus on driving the business through its current growth phase.

Path to Profitability and Fair Value 🎯

Eldorado Gold is already profitable, but the key to its massive long-term value creation lies in the Skouries project, which will fundamentally transform the company into a higher-tier, diversified producer of both gold and copper.

Path to Sustained Growth:

1. Skouries Commissioning: The successful and timely start of Skouries production in Q1 2026 is critical. Once operational, it is expected to drive the company’s annual gold equivalent production up by as much as 33% by 2027.
2. Copper Exposure: With copper production expected to reach 70 million pounds by 2027, Eldorado is poised to capitalize on the growing demand for the metal used in renewable energy and electrification.
3. Exploration Success: The consolidation of the Val-d’Or property through the QMX acquisition provides a solid pipeline of future exploration and resource growth opportunities in a safe jurisdiction.

Valuation Assessment:

Despite a strong year-to-date share price rally, Eldorado Gold appears compelling on certain metrics. Its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is significantly lower than the industry average (around 14x versus the sector average of 23.5x), suggesting that the market has not yet fully factored in the transformative earnings potential of Skouries. However, with the stock trading near recent highs, valuation is often debated. The underlying fundamentals—strong operating cash flow and a massive project nearing completion—suggest that the current valuation is warranted and still leaves room for upside.

Analyst Estimates and Ratings 📊

• Consensus Rating: Analyst sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with a consensus rating of Buy. According to key analyst actions in the past year, 7 ratings were issued for EGO stock. These include Cosmos Chiu from CIBC maintaining a "Outperformer" rating with a target price from $32.0 to $46.0 on October 10, 2025.

Investor-Focused Takeaway: Is EGO Right for Your Portfolio?

Eldorado Gold (EGO) is a compelling investment thesis focused on growth and diversification. It offers strong exposure to the high gold price environment today, combined with the exciting catalyst of the Skouries copper-gold project coming online in early 2026. This transition makes EGO a "growth story" within the mining sector. Investors should monitor the progress of the Skouries construction timeline and the ongoing trend in gold and copper prices, as these factors will heavily influence the company's performance over the next 12-18 months.

🧱 Final Word: Gold, Copper & the Future of Mining

With gold flirting near record highs and copper demand surging on global electrification trends, Barrick (B) and Eldorado (EGO) offer investors two fundamentally strong, strategically different ways to capitalize on the next commodity cycle.

🏆 Barrick Gold (B) – The Gold Standard in Scale and Profitability
✔ Record-high EPS and cash flow in Q2 2025
✔ Streamlined portfolio focused on Tier One assets
✔ Major catalysts ahead: Reko Diq, Fourmile, and Lumwana copper expansion
➤ Best for: Investors seeking a core, low-risk holding in gold and copper with high margins, a strong dividend, and disciplined execution

📈 Eldorado Gold (EGO) – The Mid-Cap Growth Story With Copper Upside
✔ 52% YoY revenue growth and robust cash generation
✔ Flagship Skouries copper-gold project 70% complete
✔ Production set to jump 30%+ by 2027
➤ Best for: Growth-oriented investors betting on operational upside and commodity leverage, with a near-term copper catalyst

Investor Insight:

🛡 Want stability, yield, and world-class reserves? → B
​ 🚀 Want growth, upside, and multi-metal exposure? → EGO

Together, these miners offer the best of both worlds: defensive strength through gold and long-term growth through copper.

We’ll be back with our next report soon, bringing you fresh insights on the market and new opportunities to watch. In the meantime, we’d love to hear from you—let us know how you found this report, what niche sectors you’d like us to cover next, and don’t forget to share your top stock holdings with us. Your feedback helps us deliver reports that matter most to your investing journey.

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Happy Trading
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