Issue #28

A fresh merger meets a breakout earnings story and both could reward patient investors.

The biotech landscape is splitting in two — on one side, bold startups betting everything on breakthrough science, and on the other, proven commercial players turning innovation into real profit.
As investors look for clarity amid market volatility, two stocks under $10 are standing out for very different reasons:

👉 One has just emerged from a major merger with deep pockets and a pipeline targeting autoimmune breakthroughs.
👉 The other has already reached profitability, scaling life-changing therapies for rare endocrine and neurological disorders.
👉 Both are drawing strong “Buy” ratings — and both could deliver meaningful upside as we head into 2026.

In this edition, we explore Jade Biosciences (JBIO) and Xeris Biopharma (XERS) — two biotech stories on opposite ends of the spectrum, but united by one thing: momentum.

Jade Biosciences (NASDAQ: JBIO)

Jade Biosciences (NASDAQ: JBIO) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing novel, potentially best-in-class therapies for autoimmune diseases. The company's strategy is centered on advancing its pipeline of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) targeting critical inflammatory pathways, aiming to redefine the standard of care for patients with significant unmet medical needs, particularly in areas like IgA nephropathy (IgAN).

📦 Business Model and Revenue Streams

Jade Biosciences operates under the development-stage biotech business model.

• Core Business: The value of the company is derived from its pipeline of investigational drugs. Its lead candidate, JADE101, is a monoclonal antibody targeting the APRIL cytokine for the treatment of IgAN, a chronic autoimmune disease that causes kidney damage. The company is also advancing preclinical antibody assets, including JADE201 (anti-BAFF-R) and JADE-003.
• Revenue Streams: As a clinical-stage company, Jade Biosciences currently has no product revenue. Its revenue is effectively zero ($0.00 reported in recent quarters). The company's operations are funded through:
• Private and Public Financing: Proceeds from its merger and related private investment rounds (PIPEs).
• Strategic Partnerships/Licensing (Future): Potential future milestone payments, royalties, or collaboration revenue from licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical partners if its drugs progress through clinical trials.

Macroeconomic Impact

For a non-revenue-generating biotech company, macroeconomic policies impact them primarily through financing and capital availability, not operational sales.

• Headwinds:
• Higher Interest Rates/Inflation: General market volatility and higher interest rates make it more expensive and difficult for high-risk, growth-focused sectors like biotech to raise capital through follow-on offerings or debt, directly impacting the company's cash runway and ability to fund trials.
• Risk-Off Sentiment: In a "risk-off" environment, investors tend to pull back from speculative assets, which can suppress the stock price and make future financing less favorable.
• Tailwinds:
• Strong Cash Position: The company's recent successful financings have provided a strong cash runway, insulating it from immediate macro pressures.
• Healthcare Demand: Demand for innovative therapies for severe autoimmune diseases remains high, regardless of economic cycles, which supports the long-term value of its pipeline assets.

📈 Recent Performance and Corporate Developments

Jade Biosciences has undergone significant corporate transformation in 2025, which defines its recent performance.

Q1 2025 Financial Highlights 💰

• Total Revenue: $0.00. (Expected for a clinical-stage company).
• Net Loss: Reported a Net Loss of $38.2 million for Q1 2025, reflecting the high costs associated with research and development (R&D) and general administrative expenses necessary to operate a public company and advance its pipeline.
• Cash Position: The company successfully completed its merger with a related financing, providing a strong cash balance that management expects to fund operations through 2027 or the first half of 2028 (following an additional $135 million private placement in October 2025). This cash runway is the single most important metric for an early-stage biotech.

Strategic Initiatives and Mergers 🤝

• Reverse Merger and Public Listing: On April 28, 2025, Jade Biosciences completed a reverse merger with Aerovate Therapeutics, which resulted in the combined company trading on NASDAQ under the symbol JBIO. This transaction, coupled with an oversubscribed private placement (PIPE) of approximately $300 million, established the company's strong balance sheet.
• Pipeline Advancement: The lead candidate, JADE101, is expected to enter first-in-human clinical trials in the second half of 2025, with interim biomarker data anticipated in the first half of 2026. This milestone is the most critical near-term catalyst.
• Recent Financing: In October 2025, Jade Biosciences secured an additional $135 million private placement, further extending its cash runway into 2028 and strengthening its ability to execute on its R&D goals.

🎯 Path to Profitability and Fair Value

Path to Profitability

Like most clinical-stage biotechs, Jade Biosciences is not currently profitable (GAAP or Non-GAAP) and is not expected to be for several years.

• The Path: Profitability for JBIO will depend entirely on the successful development, approval, and commercialization (or out-licensing) of its lead drug candidates (JADE101, JADE201, etc.). Key milestones on this path include:

1. Positive Phase 1 and Phase 2 Clinical Trial Data.
2. Securing a major pharmaceutical partner for co-development/commercialization.
3. A successful Phase 3 trial.
4. Regulatory Approval (FDA/EMA).
5. Commercial Product Sales.

Price and Analyst Estimates 📊

• Analyst Consensus and Ratings: The consensus rating from analysts is overwhelmingly a "Strong Buy" or "Moderate Buy." The search data confirms high conviction, with recent coverage initiations in October and November 2025 featuring Buy recommendations from firms like BTIG. This aligns with the stock receiving most analyst buy ratings in the last 30 days, as requested.
• Price Targets and Fair Value:
• The average 12-month price target from a composite of analysts ranges from approximately $19.38 to $23.00.
• Considering the current share price is in the $9–$10 range, the average price target suggests a potential upside of over 90% to 130%.
• Fair Value: For a clinical-stage biotech, fair value is determined by a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) model of the drug pipeline. The current low stock price relative to the analyst consensus suggests analysts believe the market has significantly undervalued the potential of JADE101 and the company’s recent financing/cash position.

Investor-Focused Takeaway: Is JBIO Right for Your Portfolio?

Jade Biosciences (JBIO) is a high-risk, high-reward investment typical of the clinical-stage biotech sector. Its value is driven by the potential success of its pipeline, not current revenue. The company has mitigated a major risk factor—cash runway—through a highly successful merger and private placement, which funds operations into 2028.

What to Watch in the Near Term: 📈

• Clinical Trial Initiation: The expected start of the first-in-human trial for JADE101 in the second half of 2025.
• Interim Data: The interim biomarker data for JADE101 expected in the first half of 2026. Positive clinical data is the primary catalyst for significant stock appreciation in biotech.
• New Analyst Coverage: Continued initiation of coverage by reputable firms will validate the company's story and potentially increase investor awareness.

Recommendation

Jade Biosciences (JBIO) is viewed as a Strong Buy by the analyst community, with price targets suggesting massive upside potential. This recommendation is based on the substantial cash runway, a focused pipeline targeting high-value autoimmune diseases, and the imminent progression of its lead asset into the clinic. Investors should recognize the binary nature of biotech stock performance—the stock price is highly sensitive to clinical trial outcomes.

Xeris Biopharma Holdings (NASDAQ: XERS)

Xeris Biopharma Holdings (NASDAQ: XERS) is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing innovative ready-to-use injectable therapies for patients with endocrine and neurological diseases. Unlike traditional early-stage biotech, Xeris has three marketed products, offering a commercially driven growth model centered on scaling patient adoption and leveraging its proprietary formulation technologies.

📦 Business Model and Revenue Streams

Xeris operates a commercial-stage biopharma business model built on a portfolio of differentiated, on-market products, which it supplements with pipeline development using its proprietary formulation platforms.

• Core Business: The company's value is derived from the net product revenue of its three commercial assets, two of which target rare diseases:
  1. Recorlev® (levoketoconazole): For the treatment of endogenous Cushing's syndrome (a rare endocrine disease). This is currently the company's primary growth driver, with exceptional year-over-year growth.
  2. Gvoke® (glucagon): A ready-to-use liquid glucagon for the treatment of severe hypoglycemia (low blood sugar) in diabetes patients.
  3. Keveyis® (dichlorphenamide): For the treatment of primary periodic paralysis (a rare neurological disorder).
• Revenue Streams: Xeris generates revenue from two main sources:
  1. Net Product Revenue: The vast majority of income comes from the sale of its three commercial products, net of discounts, rebates, and returns.
  2. Royalty, Contract, and Other Revenue: This includes milestone payments and royalties from collaborations where partners license Xeris's proprietary formulation technologies (XeriSol™ and XeriJect™) to develop their own products.

Macroeconomic Impact

As a commercial-stage biopharma focused on niche and rare diseases, Xeris is relatively insulated from consumer spending cycles but is sensitive to healthcare costs and financing.

• Headwinds:
  • Reimbursement Pressure: Economic pressure on government and private payors can lead to increased scrutiny on drug pricing and reimbursement rates, potentially limiting net revenue per prescription.
  • Cost of Capital: While the company is approaching profitability, high inflation and interest rates raise the cost of any future debt financing required for large R&D investments or potential acquisitions.
• Tailwinds/Resilience:
  • Rare Disease Focus: Treatments for rare and chronic diseases like Cushing's syndrome (Recorlev) are typically not discretionary and maintain demand regardless of the general economic climate, providing stable, high-margin revenue.
  • Product Differentiation: The convenience and readiness-to-use of products like Gvoke give it a competitive edge, helping to sustain market share even during downturns.

📈 Recent Performance and Corporate Developments

Xeris has demonstrated accelerating growth and has achieved a major financial milestone, reflecting strong commercial execution.

Q3 2025 Financial Highlights 💰

The company posted a record quarter, achieving GAAP Net Income and raising full-year guidance.

• Total Revenue: $74.4 million, representing a 40% increase year-over-year.
• Recorlev Revenue: Grew a phenomenal 109% year-over-year to $37.0 million, making it the top revenue-contributor and primary growth engine.
• Net Income (GAAP): Achieved $0.6 million in net income, compared to a net loss of $15.7 million in the same period last year—a major milestone for the company.
• Adjusted EBITDA: Was $17.4 million, an improvement of over $20 million year-over-year, showcasing excellent operating leverage.
• Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Raised to $285–$290 million, implying a 42% growth at the midpoint compared to the previous year.

Strategic Initiatives and Mergers 🤝

• Mergers: Xeris completed its acquisition of Strongbridge Biopharma in 2021, which brought Recorlev and Keveyis into its portfolio. The massive growth of Recorlev validates this merger as a crucial strategic move.
• Pipeline Advancement: The most notable pipeline asset is XP-8121, a Phase 3-ready, once-weekly subcutaneous injection for hypothyroidism, which could expand the company's addressable market significantly.
• Patent Protection: Xeris announced the Orange Book Listing of a U.S. Patent for Recorlev®, extending patent protection until 2040 and strengthening its competitive moat.
• Commercial Expansion: The company has announced plans to expand its sales and patient support teams to capitalize on the increasing market penetration of Recorlev.

🎯 Path to Profitability and Fair Value

Path to Profitability

Xeris has reached a major inflection point, achieving its first quarter of GAAP Net Income in Q3 2025.

• The Path: The company's strategy is focused on sustaining GAAP profitability through:
  • Recorlev Scale-Up: Maximizing the multi-billion-dollar peak sales potential of Recorlev by expanding patient identification and support.
  • Operational Leverage: Controlling the growth of Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses relative to the strong product revenue growth.
  • Pipeline Execution: Successfully moving XP-8121 through clinical trials to become a future revenue driver.
• Profitability Outlook: Analyst consensus forecasts suggest Xeris is expected to achieve full-year profitability in 2026, solidifying its status as a profitable commercial biopharma.

Price and Analyst Estimates 📊

• Analyst Consensus and Ratings: The consensus rating for Xeris Biopharma is a "Strong Buy" or "Buy," which meets the requirement of receiving most analyst buy ratings in the last 30 days. The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) is 1.57 (on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is Strong Buy).
• Price Targets and Fair Value:
  • The average 12-month price target from analysts is approximately $11.00, with some targets going as high as $18.00.
  • The current stock price (around $7.44) suggests a potential upside of over 47% to the average target price.
  • Fair Value: Analysts view the current price as significantly undervalued, given the accelerating revenue growth, the substantial long-term sales potential of Recorlev, and the recent achievement of GAAP profitability.

Investor-Focused Takeaway: Is XERS Right for Your Portfolio?

Xeris Biopharma (XERS) is a compelling stock under $10 because it combines the high-growth potential of biotech with the financial stability of a commercial-stage company that has just achieved profitability. The stock's future is heavily reliant on the continued success of Recorlev and the successful transition to sustained, full-year profitability.

What to Watch in the Near Term: 📈

• Recorlev Sales: Continued triple-digit or high double-digit growth in Recorlev revenue.
• Profitability Trend: Sustaining GAAP net income in Q4 2025 and moving toward full-year profitability in 2026.
• XP-8121 Progress: Updates on the Phase 3-ready program for hypothyroidism.

Recommendation:

Xeris Biopharma (XERS) is a Strong Buy candidate, supported by robust product revenue growth, the milestone of net profitability, and strong analyst conviction. Its focus on specialized, established products provides a stable commercial foundation with high-growth potential driven by Recorlev and the underlying technology platforms.

Final Take: Two Biotech Breakouts Under $10 — Two Very Different Paths, One Big Opportunity

In a volatile market, Jade Biosciences (JBIO) and Xeris Biopharma (XERS) stand out not just for their share prices — but for their distinct approaches to biotech value creation.

One is a clinical-stage moonshot, loaded with capital and targeting autoimmune innovation.
The other is a commercial-stage growth story, delivering real revenue and GAAP profitability.

🧬 Jade Biosciences (JBIO) – The Autoimmune Innovator With Deep Cash Reserves
✔ Post-merger balance sheet can fund R&D into 2028
✔ Lead candidate JADE101 targeting IgA nephropathy — first-in-human trial this year
✔ Analysts project 100%+ upside based on pipeline value and near-term catalysts
➤ Best for: Investors seeking high-risk, high-reward exposure to a novel autoimmune pipeline with rare capital strength for a micro-cap biotech.

💉 Xeris Biopharma (XERS) – Rare Disease Leader Turning Science Into Profit
✔ 3 marketed drugs including blockbuster-in-the-making Recorlev
✔ Achieved GAAP profitability in Q3 2025 and raised full-year guidance
✔ Analysts target 40–140% upside as product sales scale into 2026
➤ Best for: Growth-focused investors seeking exposure to commercial-stage biotech with real earnings momentum and pipeline upside.

Investor Insight:

💥 Want early-stage, pre-revenue biotech with big catalysts and a long cash runway? → JBIO
​ 📈 Want a profitable biotech with rare-disease exposure and accelerating sales? → XERS

With biotech bifurcating into speculative science and commercial execution, these two sub-$10 stocks represent the best of both worlds — and patient investors could be well-rewarded in 2026.
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Happy Trading
​— Team Premium Stock Alerts